By scoring a record 36 goals in his first Premier League campaign, Erling Haaland has changed the face of the Golden Boot market.
However, don’t automatically assume that he will win the award for every season he spends with Manchester City. The Norwegian may miss games through injury, and may suffer with Kevin De Bruyne absent for the first half of this campaign (as the Midfield Maestro assisted Haaland eight times in the 2022/23 Premier League).
The former Borussia Dortmund man hasn’t dragged up the Golden Boot average yet either. Across the last five seasons, the average number of goals required to finish as top scorer was 25.4, when it was 28.6 in the half-decade prior to that.
However, despite that fall, it has been 12 years since fewer than 22 goals were enough to win the Golden Boot – in 2010/11, Carlos Tevez and Dimitar Berbatov shared the award with 20 goals each.
With an eye on the market at the start of the 2023/24 campaign, we need to consider who might be capable of scoring at least 22 times.
In the last five Premier League seasons, there have been 12 examples of a player reaching this benchmark. Only eight different players have achieved this feat though; Mohamed Salah has done so three times, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Harry Kane twice, with Haaland, Danny Ings, Sadio Mané, Son Heung-min, and Jamie Vardy doing so once.
It’s an impressive group of forwards, but it also illustrates how difficult it is to repeatedly accumulate a goal haul of this size. Let’s see if there are any trends we can look for.
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