With the Cincinnati Masters final having taken place yesterday, with Novak Djokovic just about edging Carlos Alcaraz in a thriller, many will feel that this is an accurate predictor of the US Open final in a few weeks’ time in New York. Certainly, the current market here at Pinnacle suggests this is a strong possibility, with Djokovic chalked up at *2.230, and Alcaraz very slightly further back at *2.550.
Alcaraz was the pre-tournament favourite in Cincinnati. However, a really tricky week wherein he dropped sets in all his four wins before losing to Djokovic in the final - not to mention a struggle the week before in Toronto where he lost to Tommy Paul and could easily have been beaten by Hubert Hurkacz prior to that - has caused the market to be a little skeptical of the Spanish phenom’s chances.
It’s important to understand whether the market has a point here, and I do think that it does. The last two weeks have had a negative impact on Alcaraz’s year-long hard-court numbers, while Djokovic’s straightforward progress to last week’s Cincinnati final (not dropping a set) has only reinforced the Serbian’s data. The market does look to have the duo the right way round in its pricing.
The next tier of contenders features just two players - Daniil Medvedev *8.620 and Jannik Sinner *12.930 - and while Medvedev has the edge on 12-month hard court data, it’s not quite so straightforward. Sinner has the much better recent form of late after winning in Toronto, while Medvedev hasn’t impressed in the recent hard court Masters events, losing to the likes of Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev. The draw will be critical, but there’s a reasonable argument to suggest that Sinner should be similarly priced to former US Open champion Medvedev.
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