The term “hot hand” originates from basketball, where a player’s probability of hitting a free throw is believed to be higher after a hit than a miss on the previous shot. In sports betting scenarios, the term is used to describe a bettor with a persistent winning record. But is the mysterious “hot hand” scientifically proven? Read on to find out.
A research conducted by Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey at University College London investigated the hot hand effect, by examining the betting history of over 700 players who placed a combined number of 565,915 bets over the course of 2010. Read on to find out whether the belief is indeed a fallacy or not.
When luck swings your way
The researchers examined the phenomenon of winning streaks in betting by assessing the probability of winning after different lengths of previous wins.
In the first random sample of bets the probability of winning was 0.48. After examining the following bet of the same players, the probability of the winning players to have another win was 0.49. In comparison, the probability of a losing player to get a win was 0.47.
It wasn’t until the players with two consecutive wins were examined that a pattern started to emerge. The probability of winning a third bet in a row rose to a remarkable 0.57. In contrast, the players without a winning streak, showed a probability of winning of 0.45.
By checking the results of the next bet of the players who had tree consecutive wins, the probability of a fourth win went up again to 0.67. The players without the run of lucky predecessors, however, exhibited a probability of winning of only 0.45.
The same procedure continued, showing that players with a winning streak of five bets had a staggering probability of winning of 0.72, whereas the players who had lost on the immediately preceding occasion had a winning probability of 0.45.
The examination of the following bets showed a further improved probability of winning for players with six wins in a row, at a probability of 0.75. Those without a run of lucky bets though had a probability of winning of only 0.46.
Lastly, the players with a winning streak of six bets, exhibited once again an improved probability of winning the next bet at 0.76, whereas the probability of winning for those without a win in the previous round was a mere 0.47.
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