A popular market in football betting is predicting the final score of a game. Unlike straight match odds for which there are just three possible outcomes – home, draw or away – there are many more possible scores.
Bookmakers will typically limit the number of correct score odds to a maximum number of goals per team. If we call that number n, the maximum number of possible scores quoted by the bookmaker is then given by the formula (n+1)2. For example, games that finish with anything from 0 to 6 goals for either team can have 49 possible scores.
Unsurprisingly, the odds for correct score betting are considerably longer than the match odds because each possible score has a much lower chance of happening than just a straight home, draw or away result. Even the most common scores – 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 – have all occurred less than 12% of the time throughout English football league history.
Traditional bookmakers love longshots. Firstly, they make good bait to attract customers. Secondly, they make for great stories when bettors win which is useful for the purposes of attracting even more customers. Thirdly because of the number of possible outcomes and the level of uncertainly the bookmakers apply a larger margin than for match odds.
Pinnacle’s correct score margin for the 2017/18 League Cup semi-final between Arsenal and Chelsea, for example, was 5.3%, compared to 2.5% for the home-draw-away, and that only considered scores for n up to 3. Other bookmakers use much larger margins, in some cases as high as 60% where n = 6 or higher.
Finally, and most importantly of all however, bookmakers shorten the longer prices much more than the shorter ones without bettors really noticing or caring.
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