Walking through technical analysis (1)
Author: Wolong Source: Unknown Classification: Theoretical research Added time: June 18, 2001 13:17
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When the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average (DJIA) hit the 10,000 mark for the first time, the exchange rang out to celebrate The predecessor of DJIA is the average price of 10 stocks, published by Charles Dow and Edward Jones at the end of the 19th century. It is generally believed that Charles Dow is the founder of technical analysis. Dow and Jones created the “Dow “Theory”, “Dow Theory” is the cornerstone of technical analysis. Charles Dow believes that there are three clearly defined forms of stock market price movement:
The first is the main movement of about 4 years, just like the tide in the ocean; the second is the secondary movement spanning several weeks to months, just like the waves in the sea The same;
The third type is daily fluctuations, as unpredictable as waves.
He believes investors should ignore this volatility. Since then, various theories and technical indicators have emerged one after another, which can be described as a hundred flowers blooming. Wave theory, RSI and other technical indicators, four-dimensional space, spiral calendar, cycle theory, candlesticks, etc. are more popular. The investment community has never stopped debating whether technical analysis is useful or not. Therefore, a three-point situation has also been formed: the technical analysis school, the fundamental analysis school and the random walk school. In the current situation where the public says the public is right and the mother-in-law is right, I don’t think it is necessary to discuss further, because everyone’s own situation is different, and any theory will have different results when applied to different people. Now that the situation of three parts of the world has been formed, it is better to see which theory is suitable for your own situation. For institutions with 9-figure or even 10-figure funds, no one would dare to be the first to eat crabs if they completely use technical analysis to enter the market. Therefore, large institutions usually have their own researchers and choose investment targets based on the results of the research. For small and medium investors with a capital of less than 100,000 yuan, it may be unrealistic to conduct research everywhere. Therefore, it is practical to emphasize that small and medium investors should learn technical analysis methods.
technical analysis sent out investment master
In the early days of the technical analysis school, all people used the method of working diagrams. In the era without computers, the work of technical analysts was very heavy. Jesse Livermore is a well-known figure in the school of technical analysis. He made $1,000 in the stock market using “technical analysis” before he was 15, and has since made millions. After becoming famous, he hired more than 20 statisticians to operate stocks in a closed office. Another well-known figure in technical analysis, John Magee (the one who compares pigs to stocks) regards Jesse Livermore as his idol. Originally an analyst at Springfield Stock Trend Services, he decided in 1953 to start his own firm. He operated stocks in a very closed room, and later co-published a famous book of technical analysis – “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends”.
Maggie once made a very interesting metaphor: he compared a pig to a stock, and the stock price is a long rod indirectly tied to the pig. We were supposed to climb a nearby tree to observe the shaking of the pole. We don’t need to know the size, color, and type of pig, or even whether it’s a pig or not. Although a bit extreme, it pointed out the essence of stock trading very directly. You made money because you bought it for 1 yuan and sold it for 2 yuan (the stock price rose from 1 yuan to 2 yuan, which is equivalent to a pig jumping from the ground). So predicting the next action of the pig is the most important. It’s a pity that Magee spent 15 years on the charts and failed to outperform the DJIA and S&P500.YSHX
The 1950s was an era of high-growth US stocks. In the midst of a big bull market, many outstanding figures naturally appeared, and Glanville was one of the best. He entered Wall Street in 1957 and published “Daily Stock Timing Strategies for Maximum Profits” in 1960. Later, he published many works on technical analysis. When it comes to market forecasts, Granville never ambiguously speaks. In the late 1970s, his grades were quite good. 1980-1981 was his heyday. After the market closed on January 6, 1981, Granville advised more than 3,000 clients all over the world to sell all their stocks. The next morning there was a torrent of sell orders from the brokerage houses. DJIA fell 24 points that day. In April, Granville recommended buying again, and DJIA rose another 30 points within a day. His rounds are always empty. Once, an audience asked him how to analyze the trend during the report tour.
Granville took off his trousers with humor to show off his stock quotes printed on his shorts. later. Granville’s predictions are beginning to come to nothing. He predicted that the U.S. stock market would collapse, and persuaded clients to sell stocks, and even sell short. However, the reality is that the U.S. stock market started a super bull market that has not yet ended from around 750 points in 1982. Granville’s own stock operations were unsuccessful and he eventually gave up investing. yunshfx
Among Wall Street’s technical analysis masters, there is also a female hero——Ailian Jiasha She was the “leader of Black Monday” in 1987, known as the Babson of the 80s (Roger Babson predicted a stock market crash at a September 1929 luncheon, just as he had done the previous In September 1987, Jia Sally persuaded clients to leave the stock market. Before the “Black Monday” on October 19, she predicted that the U.S. stock market would It fell 600-700 points. On the same day, DJIA fell 508 points within 3 hours. After that, she declared that she would not enter the market again, because the market would still fall another 200-400 points. That extremely accurate prediction made the salary she received in the company Up to 1.5 million yuan/year. Yun Shang Hui Xin
These top figures of the technical analysis school have their own way, but in fact he (she) can never become an investment master in the end, like Buffett, Lin Odd to have such a wealth of money. Jesse Livermore even shot himself in the end. Indeed, this is a frustrating thing. So I advise readers, if your goal is to become the richest man in China, then you don’t have to spend any more time on technical analysis. But if you just want technical analysis to beat the market for you, maintain growth over the long term, and become a millionaire by retirement, you’re on the right track.Yun Shang Hui Xin Limited